In this latest publication, “Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2021”, Júlia Palik (Senior Researcher), Anna Marie Obermeier (Research Assistant) and Siri Aas Rustad (Research Director) from the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) calls attention to investment in evidence-based policymaking and development of effective early warning systems as a tool to support prevention, monitoring, or resolution of conflict efforts.

Findings of the paper confirm intrastate conflicts as a more widespread phenomenon than conflict between states. Where state-based conflicts concentrate around Syria, Yemen, the border between Mali and Burkina Faso, Eastern DRC and Somalia, Afghanistan and the Philippines, non-state conflicts are prevalent across Africa and the Americas. Afghanistan and Yemen were recorded as the deadliest conflicts in terms of death toll. It has also been noted that conflicts are more likely to rekindle in Africa and Asia.

Led by Siri Aas Rustad from PRIO, the ‘Conflict Trends’ project has previously contributed to the global dataset with publications in July 2013 and January 2020.

The paper gathers data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), PRIO, Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO), and Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict (SVAC) data sets.

Other key findings from the paper include:

• Conflicts involving the Islamic State (IS) continued throughout several regions.
• There has been an increase in one-sided violence in 2021 with non-state actors occupying largest share.
• According to the Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO) data project, the rate of successful non-violent campaigns has not exceeded 50% with exceptions in 2006 and 2013.
• The Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict (SVAC 3.0) data project most often recorded state actors as perpetrators of sexual violence. Sexual violence is most widespread in Africa and then in Middle East.

You can access the full paper here.